{
 "measurement": "What a skill costs in context on Claude Code 2.1.231, and where the cost model changes shape",
 "claude_code_version": "2.1.231",
 "what_this_corrects": "Three live surfaces on this site rest on measurements from 2.1.223/2.1.224. /cost/ interpolated a skills curve of roughly 1.5 tokens per skill. /reduce/ said '1,000 skills, 3.9MB on disk, cost 1,461 tokens, about 1.5 tokens each'. /reduce/ also said 'Forty skills with 1,500-character descriptions cost the same 80 tokens as forty with 90-character ones'. Measured in ISOLATION on 2.1.231, none of those reproduce: 40 skills cost 1,570 tokens against 80, and description length drives almost the whole cost. A separate control (skills-listing-regime-2-1-231.json) then found why, and it is not a version change: the marginal cost of a skill depends on how many skills the session already has, and the earlier figures were measured on a configured machine that was already past the point where the cost collapses. Both sets of numbers are correct measurements of different starting conditions. Everything in THIS file is the clean-project case.",
 "method": {
  "shape": "N skill directories under .claude/skills/<name>/SKILL.md with real frontmatter, measured against an empty project. Prompt: 'Reply with only: OK'.",
  "estimator": "MEDIAN of four rounds per cell. Declared once and used for every figure here.",
  "paired": "The floor is re-measured every round and every delta is against THAT round's floor. The original work recorded a 289-token baseline drift inside one session, larger than most deltas it reported. Across these four rounds the floor did not move at all: 22,643 every time.",
  "fixture_descriptions_are_PROSE": "Descriptions are real English cut to length, NOT a repeated character. A first pass used 'D' * n and measured 106 tokens per skill; the identical 90-character length in prose measured 48. A run of one character tokenises far worse than text, so the repeated-character fixture more than doubled the headline figure. That pass was discarded and every number here uses prose.",
  "controls": {
   "body_size_is_the_control": "The published signature finding is that a skill BODY is free. It reproduces exactly here: 40 skills at 200 B cost 1,574.0, at 4,000 B 1,576.0, at 28,000 B 1,576.0. Two tokens across a 140x size range. That is what establishes the fixture is built the way the original was, so the description result is a change in behaviour rather than a change in method.",
   "arrival": "Every run's reply had to be exactly OK. 80 of 80 passed.",
   "fixture_counted": "Skills are counted back off disk per run and the total bytes written recorded, so '1000 skills' is a measured fact.",
   "isolation": "--setting-sources project asserted onto the command line. That flag is also what loads project skills.",
   "no_exclusions": "All 80 runs scored."
  }
 },
 "results": {
  "count_curve": {
   "1": -149.0,
   "10": 400.0,
   "40": 1570.0,
   "100": 3910.0,
   "150": 5860.0,
   "200": 7711.0,
   "300": 8768.0,
   "400": 9357.0,
   "600": 10145.0,
   "800": 10927.0,
   "1000": 11711.0
  },
  "count_curve_published_2_1_224": {
   "1": 5,
   "10": 31,
   "40": 80,
   "150": 282,
   "400": 652,
   "1000": 1461
  },
  "marginal_tokens_per_extra_skill": {
   "10_to_40": 39.0,
   "40_to_100": 39.0,
   "100_to_150": 39.0,
   "150_to_200": 37.0,
   "200_to_300": 10.6,
   "300_to_400": 5.9,
   "400_to_600": 3.9,
   "600_to_800": 3.9,
   "800_to_1000": 3.9
  },
  "two_regimes": {
   "below_about_200_skills": 38.5,
   "above_about_400_skills": 3.9,
   "reading": "The cost is flat at 39.0 tokens per skill across three consecutive intervals from 10 to 200, then collapses to 3.9 across three consecutive intervals from 400 to 1000. Something stops inlining descriptions between 200 and 400 skills. The transition point is bracketed, not located."
  },
  "description_model": {
   "tokens_per_skill_by_description_length": {
    "30": 21.4,
    "90": 39.4,
    "300": 96.4,
    "800": 178.6,
    "1500": 169.8
   },
   "tokens_per_character": 0.276,
   "fixed_tokens_per_skill": 13.7,
   "fit_check": "predicts 38.6 tokens at 90 characters against 39.4 measured, inside the fitted range",
   "cap": "Growth stops by 800 characters: 178.6 tokens per skill at 800 and 169.8 at 1500.",
   "fit_basis": "Least squares over the THREE points up to 300 characters (30, 90, 300), R2 0.99965. Stated explicitly because a fit basis that is not disclosed cannot be checked, and because an earlier draft published a two-point fit through 30 and 300 without saying so.",
   "valid_range": "30 to 300 characters ONLY. The relationship is not linear beyond that: the marginal rate falls to 0.164 tokens per character between 300 and 800, and is flat (-0.013) between 800 and 1500. Applying 0.276 per character across the whole table overstates by 32% at 800 characters and by 153% at 1500.",
   "step_rates_tokens_per_character": {
    "30_to_90": 0.3,
    "90_to_300": 0.271,
    "300_to_800": 0.164,
    "800_to_1500": -0.013
   },
   "measured_only_at_40_skills": "Description length was varied only at 40 skills, inside the expensive regime. Whether it is charged at all past the collapse is answered by skills-desc-at-scale-2-1-231.json, which finds that it is not."
  },
  "body_size": {
   "200": 1574.0,
   "4000": 1576.0,
   "28000": 1576.0
  },
  "versus_published": {
   "40_skills": "1,570.0 against 80, 19.6x",
   "1000_skills": "11,711.0 against 1,461, 8.0x"
  },
  "totals": {
   "runs": 80,
   "scored": 80,
   "floor_drift_across_rounds": 0
  }
 },
 "known_limits": {
  "one_skill_is_inside_the_noise": "The 1-skill cell measured -149.0 with a spread of 521 tokens across rounds. The signal is smaller than the round-to-round spread there, so no claim is made about a single skill.",
  "the_transition_is_bracketed_not_located": "The regime change happens between 200 and 400 skills. Nothing here locates it, and no mechanism is claimed for it.",
  "one_description_shape": "All descriptions are cut from one paragraph of ordinary English. A description full of code, symbols or another language will tokenise differently and the 0.278 tokens per character will not transfer.",
  "project_skills_only": "Skills are loaded from the project directory under --setting-sources project. User-scope skills are excluded by that flag and are not measured here.",
  "one_machine_one_model": "Opus on Claude Code 2.1.231.",
  "this_is_the_clean_project_case_only": "Every figure here is measured under --setting-sources project, from zero pre-existing skills. On a machine with its own skills and plugins loaded the same 40 skills cost 152 tokens rather than 1,570, because the marginal cost has already collapsed. See skills-listing-regime-2-1-231.json. Do not read 39 tokens per skill as what a skill costs you; read it as what a skill costs when the listing is still small.",
  "not_a_claim_about_which_release_changed": "The published figures were measured on 2.1.223 and re-verified on 2.1.224, both without the isolation flag. The regime control shows that flag alone accounts for a factor of ten, so no version change is needed to explain the gap. A residual factor of roughly 1.9 to 2.6 against the published numbers remains unaccounted for and is not attributed here."
 },
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   "round": 0,
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   "delta": 0
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   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 1,
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   "context": 22494,
   "delta": -149,
   "per_skill": -149.0
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   "context": 23043,
   "delta": 400,
   "per_skill": 40.0
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   "skills_on_disk": 40,
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   "context": 24015,
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 ],
 "trial_total_across_the_2_1_231_corpora": {
  "runs": 132,
  "made_of": {
   "skills-cost-2-1-231.json": 80,
   "skills-listing-regime-2-1-231.json": 32,
   "skills-desc-at-scale-2-1-231.json": 20
  },
  "note": "The post's '132 runs, no exclusions' is this sum. The later 2.1.233 re-verification adds 80 more runs in its own corpus and is not counted here."
 }
}