{
 "measurement": "The two plugin ladders at eight rounds, published as bimodal cells",
 "claude_code_version": "2.1.238",
 "why": "A four-round median summarised these cells as single numbers, and because the cells are split by a 198-token intermittent component, several of those numbers were midpoints no round produced. This re-runs both ladders at eight rounds and publishes what the cells actually are.",
 "method": {
  "estimator": "Guarded mode, which REFUSES a cell where nothing repeated or the top count is tied. Cumulative cells are floor-paired and several refuse. Marginals are paired inside a round, which cancels a component that fired in both cells, and those carry the supported modes.",
  "rounds": 8,
  "controls": {
   "ladder_asserts_its_variable": "The file count is read back off disk per run and asserted equal to the requested count.",
   "arrival": "Every reply had to be exactly OK.",
   "isolation": "--setting-sources project asserted onto the command line for every call.",
   "paired_marginals_asserted": "Every marginal is paired across all 8 rounds, asserted in code."
  }
 },
 "results": {
  "ladders": {
   "commands": {
    "cumulative_floor_paired": {
     "10": {
      "mode": null,
      "estimator_refused": "the mode is tied 4-4 across 2 values [404, 602], so it is decided by dict ordering rather than by data",
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 404,
      "max": 602,
      "spread": 198,
      "all_rounds": [
       404,
       404,
       404,
       404,
       602,
       602,
       602,
       602
      ],
      "mode_seen": null,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        404,
        602
       ],
       "counts": {
        "404": 4,
        "602": 4
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     },
     "50": {
      "mode": 2004,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 2004,
      "max": 2202,
      "spread": 198,
      "all_rounds": [
       2004,
       2004,
       2004,
       2004,
       2004,
       2202,
       2202,
       2202
      ],
      "mode_seen": 5,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        2004,
        2202
       ],
       "counts": {
        "2004": 5,
        "2202": 3
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     },
     "200": {
      "mode": null,
      "estimator_refused": "the mode is tied 4-4 across 2 values [8004, 8202], so it is decided by dict ordering rather than by data",
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 8004,
      "max": 8202,
      "spread": 198,
      "all_rounds": [
       8004,
       8004,
       8004,
       8004,
       8202,
       8202,
       8202,
       8202
      ],
      "mode_seen": null,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        8004,
        8202
       ],
       "counts": {
        "8004": 4,
        "8202": 4
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     },
     "400": {
      "mode": null,
      "estimator_refused": "the mode is tied 4-4 across 2 values [9989, 10187], so it is decided by dict ordering rather than by data",
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 9989,
      "max": 10187,
      "spread": 198,
      "all_rounds": [
       9989,
       9989,
       9989,
       9989,
       10187,
       10187,
       10187,
       10187
      ],
      "mode_seen": null,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        9989,
        10187
       ],
       "counts": {
        "9989": 4,
        "10187": 4
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     },
     "800": {
      "mode": 12435,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 11538,
      "max": 12435,
      "spread": 897,
      "all_rounds": [
       11538,
       12237,
       12237,
       12237,
       12435,
       12435,
       12435,
       12435
      ],
      "mode_seen": 4,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        12237,
        12435
       ],
       "counts": {
        "12435": 4,
        "12237": 3
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     }
    },
    "marginal_paired_inside_round": {
     "0_to_10": {
      "mode": null,
      "estimator_refused": "the mode is tied 4-4 across 2 values [40.4, 60.2], so it is decided by dict ordering rather than by data",
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 40.4,
      "max": 60.2,
      "spread": 19.800000000000004,
      "all_rounds": [
       40.4,
       40.4,
       40.4,
       40.4,
       60.2,
       60.2,
       60.2,
       60.2
      ],
      "mode_seen": null,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     },
     "10_to_50": {
      "mode": 40.0,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 35.05,
      "max": 44.95,
      "spread": 9.900000000000006,
      "all_rounds": [
       35.05,
       35.05,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       44.95
      ],
      "mode_seen": 5,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     },
     "50_to_200": {
      "mode": 40.0,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 38.68,
      "max": 41.32,
      "spread": 2.6400000000000006,
      "all_rounds": [
       38.68,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       40.0,
       41.32,
       41.32
      ],
      "mode_seen": 5,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     },
     "200_to_400": {
      "mode": 9.93,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 8.94,
      "max": 10.91,
      "spread": 1.9700000000000006,
      "all_rounds": [
       8.94,
       9.93,
       9.93,
       9.93,
       9.93,
       9.93,
       9.93,
       10.91
      ],
      "mode_seen": 6,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     },
     "400_to_800": {
      "mode": 5.62,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 3.38,
      "max": 6.12,
      "spread": 2.74,
      "all_rounds": [
       3.38,
       5.62,
       5.62,
       5.62,
       5.62,
       5.62,
       5.62,
       6.12
      ],
      "mode_seen": 6,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     }
    }
   },
   "agents": {
    "cumulative_floor_paired": {
     "10": {
      "mode": 712,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": -185,
      "max": 712,
      "spread": 897,
      "all_rounds": [
       -185,
       316,
       514,
       514,
       712,
       712,
       712,
       712
      ],
      "mode_seen": 4,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        514,
        712
       ],
       "counts": {
        "712": 4,
        "514": 2
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     },
     "50": {
      "mode": 2752,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 2356,
      "max": 2752,
      "spread": 396,
      "all_rounds": [
       2356,
       2356,
       2554,
       2554,
       2752,
       2752,
       2752,
       2752
      ],
      "mode_seen": 4,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        2356,
        2752
       ],
       "counts": {
        "2752": 4,
        "2356": 2
       },
       "gap": 396,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": false
      }
     },
     "200": {
      "mode": 10402,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 9109,
      "max": 10402,
      "spread": 1293,
      "all_rounds": [
       9109,
       10204,
       10204,
       10204,
       10402,
       10402,
       10402,
       10402
      ],
      "mode_seen": 4,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        10204,
        10402
       ],
       "counts": {
        "10402": 4,
        "10204": 3
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     },
     "400": {
      "mode": 20404,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 20404,
      "max": 20602,
      "spread": 198,
      "all_rounds": [
       20404,
       20404,
       20404,
       20404,
       20404,
       20602,
       20602,
       20602
      ],
      "mode_seen": 5,
      "bimodal": {
       "values": [
        20404,
        20602
       ],
       "counts": {
        "20404": 5,
        "20602": 3
       },
       "gap": 198,
       "gap_is_the_documented_component": true
      }
     }
    },
    "marginal_paired_inside_round": {
     "0_to_10": {
      "mode": 71.2,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": -18.5,
      "max": 71.2,
      "spread": 89.7,
      "all_rounds": [
       -18.5,
       31.6,
       51.4,
       51.4,
       71.2,
       71.2,
       71.2,
       71.2
      ],
      "mode_seen": 4,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     },
     "10_to_50": {
      "mode": null,
      "estimator_refused": "the mode is tied 3-3 across 2 values [46.05, 51.0], so it is decided by dict ordering rather than by data",
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 46.05,
      "max": 73.42,
      "spread": 27.370000000000005,
      "all_rounds": [
       46.05,
       46.05,
       46.05,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       55.95,
       73.42
      ],
      "mode_seen": null,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     },
     "50_to_200": {
      "mode": null,
      "estimator_refused": "the mode is tied 3-3 across 2 values [51.0, 52.32], so it is decided by dict ordering rather than by data",
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 43.7,
      "max": 52.32,
      "spread": 8.619999999999997,
      "all_rounds": [
       43.7,
       49.68,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       52.32,
       52.32,
       52.32
      ],
      "mode_seen": null,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     },
     "200_to_400": {
      "mode": 51.0,
      "estimator_refused": null,
      "rounds": 8,
      "min": 50.01,
      "max": 56.48,
      "spread": 6.469999999999999,
      "all_rounds": [
       50.01,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       51.0,
       56.48
      ],
      "mode_seen": 6,
      "paired_rounds": 8
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "cells_the_estimator_refuses": [
   "commands 10",
   "commands 200",
   "commands 400"
  ],
  "headline": {
   "a_command": "40.0 tokens each between 50 and 200, collapsing to 9.93 between 200 and 400 and 5.62 between 400 and 800",
   "an_agent": "51.0 tokens each between 200 and 400, with no collapse"
  }
 },
 "known_limits": {
  "eight_rounds_did_not_resolve_the_split": "Three cumulative cells come back tied 4-4 between values exactly 198 apart. The split is close to a coin flip, so more rounds does not converge on one value; it is the wrong instrument for this shape. Those cells are published as two values, not as one.",
  "the_small_steps_are_not_resolvable_here": "The 0-to-10 and 10-to-50 marginals divide a component of about 198 tokens by ten or forty items, so the component dominates. The estimator refuses several of them and no per-item figure is claimed below 50.",
  "which_side_is_the_clean_value_is_not_identified_here": "Where a cell splits 4-4, this corpus does not establish which of the two values is the component-free cost. The calculator uses the lower value because the 2.1.232 run measured these same cells with zero spread at exactly that value across all four of its rounds, which is evidence from a different run rather than from this one.",
  "one_machine_one_model": "Opus on Claude Code 2.1.238, project-scope fixtures only."
 },
 "runs": [
  {
   "kind": "floor",
   "n": 0,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 0,
   "context": 22778,
   "delta": 0
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23380,
   "delta": 602,
   "per_item": 60.2
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 24980,
   "delta": 2202,
   "per_item": 44.04
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 30980,
   "delta": 8202,
   "per_item": 41.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 32965,
   "delta": 10187,
   "per_item": 25.47
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 800,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 800,
   "context": 35213,
   "delta": 12435,
   "per_item": 15.54
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23490,
   "delta": 712,
   "per_item": 71.2
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 25530,
   "delta": 2752,
   "per_item": 55.04
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 33180,
   "delta": 10402,
   "per_item": 52.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 43380,
   "delta": 20602,
   "per_item": 51.51
  },
  {
   "kind": "floor",
   "n": 0,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 0,
   "context": 22976,
   "delta": 0
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23380,
   "delta": 404,
   "per_item": 40.4
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 24980,
   "delta": 2004,
   "per_item": 40.08
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 30980,
   "delta": 8004,
   "per_item": 40.02
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 32965,
   "delta": 9989,
   "per_item": 24.97
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 800,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 800,
   "context": 35213,
   "delta": 12237,
   "per_item": 15.3
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23292,
   "delta": 316,
   "per_item": 31.6
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 25530,
   "delta": 2554,
   "per_item": 51.08
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 32085,
   "delta": 9109,
   "per_item": 45.55
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 43380,
   "delta": 20404,
   "per_item": 51.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "floor",
   "n": 0,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 0,
   "context": 22778,
   "delta": 0
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23380,
   "delta": 602,
   "per_item": 60.2
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 24980,
   "delta": 2202,
   "per_item": 44.04
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 30980,
   "delta": 8202,
   "per_item": 41.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 32767,
   "delta": 9989,
   "per_item": 24.97
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 800,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 800,
   "context": 35213,
   "delta": 12435,
   "per_item": 15.54
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 22593,
   "delta": -185,
   "per_item": -18.5
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 25530,
   "delta": 2752,
   "per_item": 55.04
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 32982,
   "delta": 10204,
   "per_item": 51.02
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 43182,
   "delta": 20404,
   "per_item": 51.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "floor",
   "n": 0,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 0,
   "context": 22778,
   "delta": 0
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23182,
   "delta": 404,
   "per_item": 40.4
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 24980,
   "delta": 2202,
   "per_item": 44.04
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 30782,
   "delta": 8004,
   "per_item": 40.02
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 32965,
   "delta": 10187,
   "per_item": 25.47
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 800,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 800,
   "context": 34316,
   "delta": 11538,
   "per_item": 14.42
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23490,
   "delta": 712,
   "per_item": 71.2
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 25332,
   "delta": 2554,
   "per_item": 51.08
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 33180,
   "delta": 10402,
   "per_item": 52.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 43182,
   "delta": 20404,
   "per_item": 51.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "floor",
   "n": 0,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 0,
   "context": 22778,
   "delta": 0
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23380,
   "delta": 602,
   "per_item": 60.2
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 50,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 50,
   "context": 24782,
   "delta": 2004,
   "per_item": 40.08
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 200,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 200,
   "context": 30980,
   "delta": 8202,
   "per_item": 41.01
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 400,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 400,
   "context": 32965,
   "delta": 10187,
   "per_item": 25.47
  },
  {
   "kind": "commands",
   "n": 800,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 800,
   "context": 35213,
   "delta": 12435,
   "per_item": 15.54
  },
  {
   "kind": "agents",
   "n": 10,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "on_disk": 10,
   "context": 23490,
   "delta": 712,
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