{
 "measurement": "Re-verification of the MCP tool-cost curves on Claude Code 2.1.251",
 "claude_code_version": "2.1.251 (Claude Code)",
 "why": "Two of the three curves the calculator interpolates from moved this week: the startup floor fell 24.5% and the skills curve moved past 200 skills. The MCP curves were five releases behind and are the remaining major input, so they were the motivated thing to check. A null on a load-bearing calculator curve is worth as much as a change.",
 "method": {
  "population": "MCP tool definitions served to an otherwise empty project, priced against a floor measured in the same round",
  "estimator": "guarded mode over 10 pooled rounds (shared estimator.py)",
  "rounds": 10,
  "runs_scored": 80,
  "runs_refused": 0,
  "controls": [
   "paired floor per round, both tool-search arms",
   "--setting-sources project asserted onto the command line",
   "tool count served back and asserted per run",
   "definition size asserted at 798 bytes per run",
   "result_guard refuses an unusable result rather than recording a zero"
  ]
 },
 "results": {
  "headline": {
   "every_cell_unchanged_since_2_1_246": true,
   "cells": 6,
   "rounds": 10,
   "plain_statement": "All six MCP cells are IDENTICAL to 2.1.246 across five releases: a deferred tool holds at about 16 tokens and a loaded one at about 652. Ten pooled rounds, none refused.",
   "contrast": "Measured the same week the startup floor fell 24.5% (baseline-floor-2-1-251) and the skills curve moved at every count past 200 (skills-cost-2-1-251). These did not move at all. No cause is offered for why one curve moved and another did not."
  },
  "curve": {
   "mcp_deferred": {
    "5": {
     "delta": 90,
     "per_tool": 18.0,
     "rounds": 10,
     "mode_seen_in_rounds": 9,
     "all_rounds": [
      -807,
      90,
      90,
      90,
      90,
      90,
      90,
      90,
      90,
      90
     ],
     "spread": 897,
     "previous_release_2_1_246": 90,
     "unchanged": true,
     "histogram": {
      "-807": 1,
      "90": 9
     }
    },
    "50": {
     "delta": 810,
     "per_tool": 16.2,
     "rounds": 10,
     "mode_seen_in_rounds": 10,
     "all_rounds": [
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810
     ],
     "spread": 0,
     "previous_release_2_1_246": 810,
     "unchanged": true,
     "histogram": {
      "810": 10
     }
    },
    "200": {
     "delta": 3210,
     "per_tool": 16.05,
     "rounds": 10,
     "mode_seen_in_rounds": 10,
     "all_rounds": [
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210
     ],
     "spread": 0,
     "previous_release_2_1_246": 3210,
     "unchanged": true,
     "histogram": {
      "3210": 10
     }
    }
   },
   "mcp_loaded": {
    "5": {
     "delta": 3270,
     "per_tool": 654.0,
     "rounds": 10,
     "mode_seen_in_rounds": 9,
     "all_rounds": [
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      4167
     ],
     "spread": 897,
     "previous_release_2_1_246": 3270,
     "unchanged": true,
     "histogram": {
      "3270": 9,
      "4167": 1
     }
    },
    "50": {
     "delta": 32610,
     "per_tool": 652.2,
     "rounds": 10,
     "mode_seen_in_rounds": 9,
     "all_rounds": [
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      33507
     ],
     "spread": 897,
     "previous_release_2_1_246": 32610,
     "unchanged": true,
     "histogram": {
      "32610": 9,
      "33507": 1
     }
    },
    "200": {
     "delta": 130410,
     "per_tool": 652.05,
     "rounds": 10,
     "mode_seen_in_rounds": 9,
     "all_rounds": [
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      131307
     ],
     "spread": 897,
     "previous_release_2_1_246": 130410,
     "unchanged": true,
     "histogram": {
      "130410": 9,
      "131307": 1
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "calculator_curves_now": {
   "mcpDeferred": [
    [
     0,
     0
    ],
    [
     5,
     90
    ],
    [
     50,
     810
    ],
    [
     200,
     3210
    ]
   ],
   "mcpLoaded": [
    [
     0,
     0
    ],
    [
     5,
     3270
    ],
    [
     50,
     32610
    ],
    [
     200,
     130410
    ]
   ]
  },
  "floors_this_run": {
   "floor_tool_search_on": [
    17177,
    17179
   ],
   "floor_tool_search_off": [
    31473,
    32370,
    32372
   ]
  },
  "every_excursion_is_the_known_component": {
   "distinct_excursions_from_mode": [
    -897,
    897
   ],
   "note": "Every single deviation from every cell's mode is exactly plus or minus 897 tokens, this machine's known intermittent component, and nothing else appeared in 60 cell readings. That is why the estimator is a guarded mode and why a 9-of-10 cell is not a weak cell here."
  }
 },
 "known_limits": {
  "CARRY FORWARD one_tool_shape": "Every definition is 798 bytes built from repeated characters, so this prices a tool of that shape and size, not a realistic schema.",
  "CARRY FORWARD no_explanation_for_the_doubling": "A loaded tool measured 304 tokens on 2.1.223/224 and 652 from 2.1.232 onward. Nothing here identifies what changed, and it is still unexplained five releases later.",
  "CARRY FORWARD the_isolation_control_is_not_carried_forward": "The 2.1.246 corpus attempted an isolation control and it FAILED; its claim was not re-established there and is not re-established here, because no bridge run was made on 2.1.251.",
  "CARRY FORWARD one_machine_one_model": "Opus on Claude Code 2.1.251, one machine, project scope.",
  "the_deferred_arm_noise_stays_RETIRED": "The 2.1.246 corpus retired an earlier noise limit on the deferred arm. It stays retired: the 50- and 200-tool deferred cells were single-valued in 10 of 10 rounds here.",
  "A NULL ACROSS FIVE RELEASES IS NOT A GUARANTEE FOR THE NEXT ONE": "These figures have now held from 2.1.232 to 2.1.251. That is a good reason to trust them today and no reason at all to stop re-checking them, as the floor moving 24.5% in the same interval demonstrates."
 },
 "runs": [
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   "arm": "floor_tool_search_on",
   "n": 0,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "tool_search_off": false,
   "context": 17177,
   "delta": 0
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  {
   "arm": "floor_tool_search_off",
   "n": 0,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "tool_search_off": true,
   "context": 32370,
   "delta": 0
  },
  {
   "arm": "mcp_deferred",
   "n": 5,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "tool_search_off": false,
   "tools_served_by_server": 5,
   "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
   "paired_floor": 17177,
   "context": 16370,
   "delta": -807,
   "per_tool": -161.4
  },
  {
   "arm": "mcp_loaded",
   "n": 5,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "tool_search_off": true,
   "tools_served_by_server": 5,
   "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
   "paired_floor": 32370,
   "context": 35640,
   "delta": 3270,
   "per_tool": 654.0
  },
  {
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   "n": 50,
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   "per_tool": 16.2
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   "per_tool": 652.2
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   "per_tool": 652.05
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
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  {
   "arm": "floor_tool_search_on",
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   "delta": 0
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  {
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  {
   "arm": "mcp_deferred",
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   "status": "ok",
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   "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
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