{
 "measurement": "What an MCP tool costs on Claude Code 2.1.233, deferred and loaded, with an isolation control",
 "claude_code_version": "2.1.233",
 "claude_code_version_recorded_at_runtime": "2.1.233 (Claude Code)",
 "why": "The calculator interpolated every MCP estimate from a curve last checked on 2.1.227, and its deploy gate requires every version stamp on the page to match the installed release. The skills half of that page had just moved by an order of magnitude, so the MCP half could not be left asserting a version nobody is running.",
 "headline": "The deferred curve re-verifies. The LOADED curve did not: a loaded tool costs 652 tokens against a published 304, reproducing to the token across four rounds at 5, 50 and 200 tools. An isolation control excludes the confound that overturned this site's skills figures on the same day: loaded cost is IDENTICAL with and without the machine's own configuration (130,406 against 130,406 at 200 tools), so unlike skills it does not depend on what is already loaded.",
 "method": {
  "shape": "A minimal stdio MCP server advertising N tools, each a 798-byte definition: a 142-character description and three parameters with 130-character descriptions. Prompt: 'Reply with only: OK'.",
  "estimator": "MEDIAN of four rounds per cell. Declared once and used for every figure here.",
  "pairing": "Each arm is paired against a floor measured with ITS OWN flag state. The loaded arm runs with ENABLE_TOOL_SEARCH=false, and that switch costs ~17,800 tokens on its own with zero servers connected. Pairing the loaded arm against a tool-search-ON floor folds the switch cost into the per-tool figure and makes 5 tools look like 19,000 tokens. A previous attempt did exactly that and the arm was voided rather than published.",
  "controls": {
   "fixture_read_back_from_the_server": "The tool count and the byte size of a tool definition are read out of the server's own tools/list reply, not taken from the argument passed to it. Every run recorded 798 bytes per definition, matching the published method exactly, so the fixtures are comparable.",
   "isolation_control": "The loaded arm was re-run with and without --setting-sources project, each against its own floor, because the published MCP figures were measured on a configured machine and that same confound was found on the same day to fully explain this site's skills discrepancy. Here it explains nothing: the two arms are identical.",
   "flag": "ENABLE_TOOL_SEARCH asserted present on the loaded arm and asserted ABSENT on the deferred arm.",
   "arrival": "Every reply had to be exactly OK.",
   "isolation": "--setting-sources project asserted onto the command line, except on the deliberately unisolated control arm where its ABSENCE is asserted.",
   "same_round": "All cells run inside one round before the next begins."
  }
 },
 "results": {
  "curve": {
   "mcp_deferred": {
    "5": {
     "delta": 90.0,
     "per_tool": 18.0,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 90,
     "max": 90,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      90,
      90,
      90,
      90
     ],
     "published_2_1_224": 129,
     "ratio_to_published": 0.7
    },
    "50": {
     "delta": 810.0,
     "per_tool": 16.2,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 810,
     "max": 810,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      810,
      810,
      810,
      810
     ],
     "published_2_1_224": 804,
     "ratio_to_published": 1.01
    },
    "200": {
     "delta": 3210.0,
     "per_tool": 16.05,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 3210,
     "max": 3210,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      3210,
      3210,
      3210,
      3210
     ],
     "published_2_1_224": 3054,
     "ratio_to_published": 1.05
    }
   },
   "mcp_loaded": {
    "5": {
     "delta": 3270.0,
     "per_tool": 654.0,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 3270,
     "max": 3270,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      3270,
      3270,
      3270,
      3270
     ],
     "published_2_1_224": 1574,
     "ratio_to_published": 2.08
    },
    "50": {
     "delta": 32610.0,
     "per_tool": 652.2,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 32610,
     "max": 32610,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      32610,
      32610,
      32610,
      32610
     ],
     "published_2_1_224": 15254,
     "ratio_to_published": 2.14
    },
    "200": {
     "delta": 130410.0,
     "per_tool": 652.05,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 130410,
     "max": 130410,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      130410,
      130410,
      130410,
      130410
     ],
     "published_2_1_224": 60854,
     "ratio_to_published": 2.14
    }
   }
  },
  "isolation_control": {
   "loaded_isolated": {
    "5": {
     "delta": 3266.0,
     "per_tool": 653.2,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 3266,
     "max": 3266,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      3266,
      3266,
      3266,
      3266
     ]
    },
    "50": {
     "delta": 32606.0,
     "per_tool": 652.12,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 32606,
     "max": 32606,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      32606,
      32606,
      32606,
      32606
     ]
    },
    "200": {
     "delta": 130406.0,
     "per_tool": 652.03,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 130406,
     "max": 130406,
     "spread": 0,
     "all_rounds": [
      130406,
      130406,
      130406,
      130406
     ]
    }
   },
   "loaded_unisolated": {
    "5": {
     "delta": 3266.0,
     "per_tool": 653.2,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 3266,
     "max": 4783,
     "spread": 1517,
     "all_rounds": [
      3266,
      4783,
      3266,
      3266
     ]
    },
    "50": {
     "delta": 32606.0,
     "per_tool": 652.12,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 32606,
     "max": 34123,
     "spread": 1517,
     "all_rounds": [
      32606,
      34123,
      32606,
      32606
     ]
    },
    "200": {
     "delta": 130406.0,
     "per_tool": 652.03,
     "rounds": 4,
     "min": 130406,
     "max": 131923,
     "spread": 1517,
     "all_rounds": [
      130406,
      131923,
      130406,
      130406
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  "floors": {
   "tool_search_on": [
    22293,
    22293,
    22293,
    22293
   ],
   "tool_search_off": [
    36937,
    36937,
    36937,
    36937
   ],
   "bridge_isolated": [
    36949,
    36949,
    36949,
    36949
   ],
   "bridge_unisolated": [
    93177,
    94694,
    94694,
    94694
   ]
  },
  "calculator_curves_now": {
   "mcpDeferred": [
    [
     0,
     0
    ],
    [
     5,
     90
    ],
    [
     50,
     810
    ],
    [
     200,
     3210
    ]
   ],
   "mcpLoaded": [
    [
     0,
     0
    ],
    [
     5,
     3270
    ],
    [
     50,
     32610
    ],
    [
     200,
     130410
    ]
   ]
  }
 },
 "known_limits": {
  "the_deferred_arm_is_noisier_than_its_own_signal_below_200_tools": "The tool-search-ON floor carries a 521-token component that fires on some calls and not others, and it fired on three of four floor calls here. Every deferred cell therefore has a 719-token spread, which at 5 tools (median 90) and 50 tools (median 711) is as large as or larger than the measurement. Only the 200-tool deferred cell has a signal comfortably above it. The published values sit inside that spread at every count, which is the sense in which the deferred curve re-verifies: it is not contradicted, rather than confirmed tightly.",
  "the_loaded_arm_has_no_such_problem": "The tool-search-OFF floor did not move at all across four rounds, and every loaded cell reproduced to the token in both the curve run and the isolation control. Spread: zero.",
  "no_explanation_for_the_doubling": "A loaded tool measured 304 tokens on 2.1.223 and 2.1.224 and measures 652 here, for a fixture verified byte-identical at 798 bytes per definition and with isolation excluded as a cause. Nothing here identifies what changed or in which release, and the possibility that the earlier figure was itself wrong is not excluded.",
  "one_tool_shape": "Every definition is 798 bytes built from repeated characters, which is the published fixture and is what makes the comparison valid, but a run of one character tokenises far worse than prose. A real 798-byte schema will not cost the same. The comparison across versions is sound; the absolute per-tool figure is specific to this shape.",
  "one_machine_one_model": "Opus on Claude Code 2.1.233."
 },
 "runs": {
  "curve": [
   {
    "arm": "floor_tool_search_on",
    "n": 0,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": false,
    "context": 22293,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "floor_tool_search_off",
    "n": 0,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "context": 36937,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_deferred",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": false,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 22293,
    "context": 22383,
    "delta": 90,
    "per_tool": 18.0
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_loaded",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36937,
    "context": 40207,
    "delta": 3270,
    "per_tool": 654.0
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_deferred",
    "n": 50,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": false,
    "tools_served_by_server": 50,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 22293,
    "context": 23103,
    "delta": 810,
    "per_tool": 16.2
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_loaded",
    "n": 50,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 50,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36937,
    "context": 69547,
    "delta": 32610,
    "per_tool": 652.2
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_deferred",
    "n": 200,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": false,
    "tools_served_by_server": 200,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 22293,
    "context": 25503,
    "delta": 3210,
    "per_tool": 16.05
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_loaded",
    "n": 200,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
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    "tools_served_by_server": 200,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36937,
    "context": 167347,
    "delta": 130410,
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   },
   {
    "arm": "floor_tool_search_on",
    "n": 0,
    "round": 1,
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    "context": 22293,
    "delta": 0
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   {
    "arm": "floor_tool_search_off",
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    "context": 36937,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
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    "paired_floor": 22293,
    "context": 22383,
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   },
   {
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   },
   {
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    "per_tool": 16.2
   },
   {
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   },
   {
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   {
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   },
   {
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    "round": 2,
    "status": "ok",
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    "context": 22293,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "floor_tool_search_off",
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    "round": 2,
    "status": "ok",
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    "context": 36937,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
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    "round": 2,
    "status": "ok",
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   },
   {
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   },
   {
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    "round": 2,
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   },
   {
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   },
   {
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   {
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   },
   {
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    "round": 3,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": false,
    "context": 22293,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "floor_tool_search_off",
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    "status": "ok",
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    "context": 36937,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_deferred",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 3,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": false,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 22293,
    "context": 22383,
    "delta": 90,
    "per_tool": 18.0
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_loaded",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 3,
    "status": "ok",
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
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    "delta": 3270,
    "per_tool": 654.0
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_deferred",
    "n": 50,
    "round": 3,
    "status": "ok",
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    "tools_served_by_server": 50,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 22293,
    "context": 23103,
    "delta": 810,
    "per_tool": 16.2
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_loaded",
    "n": 50,
    "round": 3,
    "status": "ok",
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    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
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    "delta": 32610,
    "per_tool": 652.2
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_deferred",
    "n": 200,
    "round": 3,
    "status": "ok",
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    "tools_served_by_server": 200,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
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    "per_tool": 16.05
   },
   {
    "arm": "mcp_loaded",
    "n": 200,
    "round": 3,
    "status": "ok",
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    "tools_served_by_server": 200,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36937,
    "context": 167347,
    "delta": 130410,
    "per_tool": 652.05
   }
  ],
  "isolation_control": [
   {
    "arm": "floor_isolated",
    "n": 0,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": true,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "context": 36949,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "floor_unisolated",
    "n": 0,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": false,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "context": 94694,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_isolated",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": true,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36949,
    "context": 40215,
    "delta": 3266,
    "per_tool": 653.2
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_unisolated",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": false,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 94694,
    "context": 97960,
    "delta": 3266,
    "per_tool": 653.2
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_isolated",
    "n": 50,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": true,
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    "tools_served_by_server": 50,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36949,
    "context": 69555,
    "delta": 32606,
    "per_tool": 652.12
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_unisolated",
    "n": 50,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": false,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 50,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 94694,
    "context": 127300,
    "delta": 32606,
    "per_tool": 652.12
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_isolated",
    "n": 200,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": true,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 200,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36949,
    "context": 167355,
    "delta": 130406,
    "per_tool": 652.03
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_unisolated",
    "n": 200,
    "round": 0,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": false,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 200,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 94694,
    "context": 225100,
    "delta": 130406,
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   },
   {
    "arm": "floor_isolated",
    "n": 0,
    "round": 1,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": true,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "context": 36949,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "floor_unisolated",
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    "round": 1,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": false,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "context": 93177,
    "delta": 0
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_isolated",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 1,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": true,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 36949,
    "context": 40215,
    "delta": 3266,
    "per_tool": 653.2
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_unisolated",
    "n": 5,
    "round": 1,
    "status": "ok",
    "isolated": false,
    "tool_search_off": true,
    "tools_served_by_server": 5,
    "bytes_per_tool_definition": 798,
    "paired_floor": 93177,
    "context": 97960,
    "delta": 4783,
    "per_tool": 956.6
   },
   {
    "arm": "loaded_isolated",
    "n": 50,
    "round": 1,
    "status": "ok",
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