{
 "measurement": "What a real, currently-trending CLAUDE.md costs per turn, against two predictions this site had already published",
 "trial_date": "2026-08-24",
 "claude_code_version": "2.1.241 (Claude Code)",
 "subject": {
  "trending_as": "multica-ai/andrej-karpathy-skills, 491 stars in a day on 2026-08-24",
  "attribution": "The plugin manifest names forrestchang as author and the raw URL inside the repo points at forrestchang/andrej-karpathy-skills, so multica-ai is a re-host. Checked, not assumed.",
  "commit": "2c606141936f1eeef17fa3043a72095b4765b9c2",
  "file": "CLAUDE.md",
  "bytes": 2357,
  "shape": "Markdown-structured: headers, bold runs, bullet lists, one fenced code block, arrow characters. NOT flowing prose, which matters because the rate is content-dependent.",
  "what_was_measured_is_one_of_two_install_paths": "IMPORTANT SCOPE. The repository is NOT a single file: at this commit it holds nine files totalling 37,694 bytes, including a Claude Code plugin manifest, a skills/karpathy-guidelines/SKILL.md of 2,518 bytes which is LARGER than the file measured here, a Cursor rule and a 14,838-byte EXAMPLES.md. Its README lists 'Option A: Claude Code Plugin (recommended)' first and 'Option B: CLAUDE.md (per-project)' second. What is measured here is OPTION B, the project-root CLAUDE.md, which is not the install path the repository recommends. The plugin path was NOT measured and this corpus says nothing about what it costs."
 },
 "pre_registration": "/karpathy-md-preregistration.md, written before any run",
 "predictions_made_before_measuring": {
  "A_cost_calculator_curve": {
   "formula": "106 tokens overhead + 0.26 tokens per byte",
   "source": "/cost/, sourced to /claude-md-costs-1845x-more-than-a-skill/",
   "predicts": 718.8,
   "below_the_mode_by": 263.2,
   "inside_full_observed_range": true
  },
  "B_measured_prose_rate": {
   "formula": "0.2759 tokens per byte, no overhead term",
   "source": "/claudemd-per-turn-2-1-233.json, measured on 18,000 bytes of English prose",
   "predicts": 650.3,
   "below_the_mode_by": 331.7,
   "inside_full_observed_range": true
  }
 },
 "method": {
  "arms": "no_md and with_md, differing ONLY by the presence of this file at the project root, run inside the same round.",
  "turns": "Four turns per session, resumed via --resume so it is one conversation.",
  "estimator": "MODE of the paired difference, with the full range always published. The difference is multimodal, so a median would be a phantom no pair produced.",
  "population": "Every (round, turn) where BOTH arms produced an ok run.",
  "adapted_from": "claudemd-per-turn-run.py, which measured a synthetic prose fixture. The design and controls are that file's."
 },
 "controls": {
  "isolation": "--setting-sources project asserted onto the command line.",
  "fixture_both_ways": "with_md asserts the file on disk at 2357 bytes and byte-identical to its source; no_md asserts the file is ABSENT.",
  "one_working_directory": "Every run used /tmp/kmd/run. The startup floor moves with the path on this release, and the harness this was adapted from used a different directory name per arm.",
  "arrival": "Every turn demands a distinct marker in the reply; 120 of 120 arrived.",
  "billing_split": "input, cache creation and cache read kept separate per turn.",
  "api_errors": "A 429 or 529 is recorded as not_a_measurement, never as a zero."
 },
 "results": {
  "paired_differences": 60,
  "mode_tokens": 982,
  "mode_share": "38 of 60 pairs",
  "observed_range": [
   -208,
   2172
  ],
  "histogram": {
   "-208": 2,
   "-54": 1,
   "14": 1,
   "152": 1,
   "452": 2,
   "590": 1,
   "674": 2,
   "844": 2,
   "982": 38,
   "1120": 6,
   "1512": 2,
   "1880": 1,
   "2172": 1
  },
  "tokens_per_byte_at_the_mode": 0.4166,
  "by_turn": {
   "1": {
    "pairs": 15,
    "histogram": {
     "-54": 1,
     "674": 1,
     "844": 1,
     "982": 9,
     "1120": 2,
     "1880": 1
    }
   },
   "2": {
    "pairs": 15,
    "histogram": {
     "452": 1,
     "674": 1,
     "982": 13
    }
   },
   "3": {
    "pairs": 15,
    "histogram": {
     "-208": 1,
     "14": 1,
     "844": 1,
     "982": 9,
     "1120": 2,
     "1512": 1
    }
   },
   "4": {
    "pairs": 15,
    "histogram": {
     "-208": 1,
     "152": 1,
     "452": 1,
     "590": 1,
     "982": 7,
     "1120": 2,
     "1512": 1,
     "2172": 1
    }
   }
  },
  "modal_context_each_arm": {
   "1": {
    "no_md": [
     22935,
     11
    ],
    "with_md": [
     23917,
     13
    ]
   },
   "2": {
    "no_md": [
     22068,
     11
    ],
    "with_md": [
     23050,
     13
    ]
   },
   "3": {
    "no_md": [
     22113,
     10
    ],
    "with_md": [
     23095,
     11
    ]
   },
   "4": {
    "no_md": [
     22157,
     8
    ],
    "with_md": [
     23139,
     6
    ]
   }
  }
 },
 "known_limits": {
  "carried_from_the_prose_corpus_one_file_shape": "CARRIED FORWARD and now DEMONSTRATED. The older corpus warned that 'a file of tables or code will not cost the same per byte'. This markdown-structured file costs 0.417 tokens/byte at the mode, above the 0.26 to 0.37 range that warning quoted.",
  "carried_four_turns": "CARRIED FORWARD. Turns 1 to 4 only. Nothing here says what happens on turn 20, after a compaction, or after an idle gap long enough to expire the cache.",
  "carried_trivial_turns": "CARRIED FORWARD. Every turn is a two-word reply, so what is isolated is the file's marginal contribution, not a whole session's cost.",
  "carried_one_machine": "CARRIED FORWARD. One machine, one account, project scope only.",
  "retired_phantom_median_waiver": "RETIRED. That waiver applied to a continuous cost float. No cost median is published here.",
  "the_difference_is_multimodal": "NEW. The paired difference is not a constant. It takes the modal value on most pairs and wanders otherwise, with the full range spanning both published predictions. The MODE is the finding; the range is published beside it and neither prediction is refuted by this data.",
  "predictions_not_refuted": "The two pre-registered predictions sit BELOW the mode but INSIDE the observed range. What is established is that the modal cost of this file is higher than either predicts, not that the curves are wrong."
 },
 "sources": [
  "karpathy-md-5r.json",
  "karpathy-md-10r.json"
 ],
 "runs": [
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "ALPHA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "bda0bb08-38b2-4060-a1b9-6de4f3e86936",
   "resumed_from": null,
   "input": 900,
   "cache_creation": 3042,
   "cache_read": 18855,
   "context": 22797,
   "cost_usd": 0.0409705,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "BRAVO",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "bda0bb08-38b2-4060-a1b9-6de4f3e86936",
   "resumed_from": "bda0bb08-38b2-4060-a1b9-6de4f3e86936",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 3224,
   "cache_read": 18842,
   "context": 22068,
   "cost_usd": 0.041845999999999994,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "CHARLIE",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "bda0bb08-38b2-4060-a1b9-6de4f3e86936",
   "resumed_from": "bda0bb08-38b2-4060-a1b9-6de4f3e86936",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 45,
   "cache_read": 22066,
   "context": 22113,
   "cost_usd": 0.011693,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "DELTA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "bda0bb08-38b2-4060-a1b9-6de4f3e86936",
   "resumed_from": "bda0bb08-38b2-4060-a1b9-6de4f3e86936",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 44,
   "cache_read": 22111,
   "context": 22157,
   "cost_usd": 0.0116555,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "ALPHA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "43696362-940b-448f-92d0-4303c7e0e0a9",
   "resumed_from": null,
   "input": 900,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 23017,
   "context": 23917,
   "cost_usd": 0.012636499999999998,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "BRAVO",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "43696362-940b-448f-92d0-4303c7e0e0a9",
   "resumed_from": "43696362-940b-448f-92d0-4303c7e0e0a9",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 23048,
   "context": 23050,
   "cost_usd": 0.011708999999999999,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "CHARLIE",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "43696362-940b-448f-92d0-4303c7e0e0a9",
   "resumed_from": "43696362-940b-448f-92d0-4303c7e0e0a9",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 23093,
   "context": 23095,
   "cost_usd": 0.0117565,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 0,
   "turn": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "DELTA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "43696362-940b-448f-92d0-4303c7e0e0a9",
   "resumed_from": "43696362-940b-448f-92d0-4303c7e0e0a9",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 23137,
   "context": 23139,
   "cost_usd": 0.011728500000000001,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "ALPHA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "04e11600-9e81-4adb-98f1-3e2f4c38dcb0",
   "resumed_from": null,
   "input": 900,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 22035,
   "context": 22935,
   "cost_usd": 0.012145499999999998,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "BRAVO",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "04e11600-9e81-4adb-98f1-3e2f4c38dcb0",
   "resumed_from": "04e11600-9e81-4adb-98f1-3e2f4c38dcb0",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 3754,
   "cache_read": 18842,
   "context": 22598,
   "cost_usd": 0.04714599999999999,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "CHARLIE",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "04e11600-9e81-4adb-98f1-3e2f4c38dcb0",
   "resumed_from": "04e11600-9e81-4adb-98f1-3e2f4c38dcb0",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 567,
   "cache_read": 22596,
   "context": 23165,
   "cost_usd": 0.017178,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "DELTA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "04e11600-9e81-4adb-98f1-3e2f4c38dcb0",
   "resumed_from": "04e11600-9e81-4adb-98f1-3e2f4c38dcb0",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 182,
   "cache_read": 23163,
   "context": 23347,
   "cost_usd": 0.0135615,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "ALPHA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "397dd93e-0ded-4376-9342-24f06f2f8b94",
   "resumed_from": null,
   "input": 900,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 23017,
   "context": 23917,
   "cost_usd": 0.012636499999999998,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "BRAVO",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "397dd93e-0ded-4376-9342-24f06f2f8b94",
   "resumed_from": "397dd93e-0ded-4376-9342-24f06f2f8b94",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 4736,
   "cache_read": 18842,
   "context": 23580,
   "cost_usd": 0.056966,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "CHARLIE",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "397dd93e-0ded-4376-9342-24f06f2f8b94",
   "resumed_from": "397dd93e-0ded-4376-9342-24f06f2f8b94",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 705,
   "cache_read": 23578,
   "context": 24285,
   "cost_usd": 0.019049,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 1,
   "turn": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "DELTA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "397dd93e-0ded-4376-9342-24f06f2f8b94",
   "resumed_from": "397dd93e-0ded-4376-9342-24f06f2f8b94",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 44,
   "cache_read": 24283,
   "context": 24329,
   "cost_usd": 0.0127415,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "ALPHA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "257ecc27-3fc6-4d68-8e13-45d1abd6e40f",
   "resumed_from": null,
   "input": 900,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 22035,
   "context": 22935,
   "cost_usd": 0.012145499999999998,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "BRAVO",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "257ecc27-3fc6-4d68-8e13-45d1abd6e40f",
   "resumed_from": "257ecc27-3fc6-4d68-8e13-45d1abd6e40f",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 22066,
   "context": 22068,
   "cost_usd": 0.011217999999999999,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "CHARLIE",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "257ecc27-3fc6-4d68-8e13-45d1abd6e40f",
   "resumed_from": "257ecc27-3fc6-4d68-8e13-45d1abd6e40f",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 22111,
   "context": 22113,
   "cost_usd": 0.0112655,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "DELTA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "257ecc27-3fc6-4d68-8e13-45d1abd6e40f",
   "resumed_from": "257ecc27-3fc6-4d68-8e13-45d1abd6e40f",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 22155,
   "context": 22157,
   "cost_usd": 0.011237500000000001,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "ALPHA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "fbe6b947-cc31-4703-b377-4fcb5c7f5c4b",
   "resumed_from": null,
   "input": 900,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 23017,
   "context": 23917,
   "cost_usd": 0.012636499999999998,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "BRAVO",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "fbe6b947-cc31-4703-b377-4fcb5c7f5c4b",
   "resumed_from": "fbe6b947-cc31-4703-b377-4fcb5c7f5c4b",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 0,
   "cache_read": 23048,
   "context": 23050,
   "cost_usd": 0.011708999999999999,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "CHARLIE",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "fbe6b947-cc31-4703-b377-4fcb5c7f5c4b",
   "resumed_from": "fbe6b947-cc31-4703-b377-4fcb5c7f5c4b",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 575,
   "cache_read": 23048,
   "context": 23625,
   "cost_usd": 0.017484,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "with_md",
   "round": 2,
   "turn": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 2357,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "DELTA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "fbe6b947-cc31-4703-b377-4fcb5c7f5c4b",
   "resumed_from": "fbe6b947-cc31-4703-b377-4fcb5c7f5c4b",
   "input": 2,
   "cache_creation": 704,
   "cache_read": 23623,
   "context": 24329,
   "cost_usd": 0.0190115,
   "_src": "karpathy-md-5r.json"
  },
  {
   "arm": "no_md",
   "round": 3,
   "turn": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "claude_md_bytes_on_disk": 0,
   "cwd": "/tmp/kmd/run",
   "marker_expected": "ALPHA",
   "marker_arrived": true,
   "session_id": "3b048c34-955d-4b09-833f-1531233939c8",
   "resumed_from": null,
   "input": 900,
   "cache_creation": 0,
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}