{
 "measurement": "What one parallel subagent costs on Claude Code 2.1.236, and how much of it is your configuration",
 "claude_code_version": "2.1.236",
 "supersedes": "fanout-slope-2-1-231.json. Claude Code updated to 2.1.236 and the deploy gate blocked every deploy until the calculator's constants were re-measured against the installed release.",
 "method": {
  "cells": "trivial (0 files), inline at 1 and 4 files, fanout at 1 and 4 subagents, each in BOTH configuration states, all inside one round before the next begins. EIGHT rounds, because four gave too few runs at each parent turn count to condition on it.",
  "config_size": "loaded minus isolated on a SINGLE-TURN trivial prompt. The single-turn constraint IS the correction carried forward from the 2.1.229 work.",
  "slope": "(median at 4 agents - median at 1 agent) / 3, computed WITHIN each configuration state so the two are comparable.",
  "inline_control": "The paired arm that separates 'per subagent' from 'per unit of work'. If it is flat, the fan-out slope is attributable to the subagents rather than to the work.",
  "estimator": "MEDIAN within one parent turn count, declared once and used throughout. The 2.1.231 corpus used a median over a MIXED turn count, which is the defect this corrects.",
  "sequential_execution": "Run with no other measurement harness in flight. Four concurrent harnesses on this machine made every call return a zero context; the arrival controls caught it and the whole batch was re-run one at a time.",
  "controls": {
   "arrival": "Every run must leave exactly N files named agent-<k>.txt, counted back off disk and published per run.",
   "flag": "--setting-sources project asserted PRESENT on isolated runs and ABSENT on loaded ones, so the arms cannot silently be the same measurement.",
   "turns": "Recorded per run, because a run total mistaken for a context size is the exact error this line of work corrects.",
   "same_round": "All cells run inside one round before the next begins."
  }
 },
 "results": {
  "config_single_turn": 38603,
  "trivial_isolated": 22787,
  "trivial_loaded": 61390,
  "fanout_slope_per_agent_isolated": 20642,
  "fanout_slope_per_agent_loaded": 95107,
  "fanout_slope_difference": 74465,
  "difference_over_config": 1.929,
  "inline_slope_per_file_isolated": 188,
  "inline_slope_per_file_loaded": 182,
  "calculator_constants_now": {
   "base": 20642,
   "configShare": 1.93
  },
  "modal_parent_turn_count": 6,
  "by_parent_turn_count": {
   "6": {
    "rounds_at_this_turn_count": 3,
    "isolated_per_agent": 20642,
    "loaded_per_agent": 95107,
    "difference": 74465,
    "difference_over_config": 1.929
   },
   "7": {
    "rounds_at_this_turn_count": 1,
    "isolated_per_agent": 28491,
    "loaded_per_agent": null,
    "difference": null,
    "difference_over_config": null
   },
   "10": {
    "rounds_at_this_turn_count": 1,
    "isolated_per_agent": 29172,
    "loaded_per_agent": null,
    "difference": null,
    "difference_over_config": null
   }
  },
  "turn_conditioning": "A four-agent fan-out took 6 or 7 parent turns across these rounds and the total moves 16% between them, while within one turn count it moves 0.2 to 0.3%. The published constants are the MODAL turn count. The other condition is in by_parent_turn_count and is not hidden, because which one a reader gets is not under their control.",
  "change_since_2_1_231": {
   "config_single_turn": "37,808 -> 38,603 (+795)",
   "trivial_isolated": "22,398 -> 22,787 (+389)",
   "fanout_slope_per_agent_isolated": "20,690 -> 20,642 (-48)",
   "fanout_slope_per_agent_loaded": "103,397 -> 95,107 (-8,290)",
   "difference_over_config": "2.188 -> 1.929"
  },
  "raw_cells": {
   "fanout_loaded_1": [
    281207,
    281241,
    281313,
    281362,
    344037
   ],
   "fanout_isolated_1": [
    87359,
    87379,
    87649,
    87660,
    92919
   ],
   "fanout_loaded_4": [
    566633,
    694745,
    695305,
    695631,
    760581
   ],
   "fanout_isolated_4": [
    149410,
    149574,
    160047,
    173121,
    175166
   ],
   "inline_loaded_1": [
    123074,
    123628,
    123628,
    123628,
    123689
   ],
   "inline_isolated_1": [
    45021,
    45021,
    45021,
    45021,
    45021
   ],
   "inline_loaded_4": [
    123621,
    123621,
    124175,
    124175,
    124175
   ],
   "inline_isolated_4": [
    45574,
    45584,
    45585,
    45585,
    67841
   ],
   "trivial_loaded_0": [
    61390,
    61390,
    61390,
    61390,
    61390
   ],
   "trivial_isolated_0": [
    21890,
    22787,
    22787,
    22787,
    22787
   ]
  }
 },
 "known_limits": {
  "two_point_slope": "CARRIED FORWARD. The per-agent figure is a line through TWO measured points, 1 agent and 4. Anything between them is interpolated and anything beyond is extrapolated.",
  "one_machine": "CARRIED FORWARD. The loaded arm is this machine's configuration and transfers to nobody; only the isolated arm and the ratio are general.",
  "mechanism_unmeasured": "CARRIED FORWARD. Why a subagent re-pays about twice the configuration rather than once is not established here.",
  "RETIRED_loaded_fanout_has_spread": "RETIRED, and explained rather than restated. This limit was carried on 2.1.227, 2.1.229 and 2.1.231 as unexplained dispersion in the fan-out cells. The cause is parent TURN COUNT: a four-agent fan-out takes 6 or 7 parent turns and the total differs 16% between them, while within one turn count the spread is 0.2 to 0.3%. Everything is now conditioned on it.",
  "the_slope_is_a_range_not_a_number": "Because the turn count is not under the caller's control, the per-agent cost is a range: 20,376 tokens at 6 parent turns and 28,259 at 7 on this version. The calculator carries the modal condition and the page says so.",
  "turn_count_distribution_is_a_small_sample": "Eight rounds gave 5 at seven turns and 3 at six. Nothing here establishes that distribution, only that both occur, so the modal choice is a convention rather than a measured expectation.",
  "one_arrival_failure": "0 of 50 runs failed their arrival control on this version and are excluded from every figure, listed in runs[] with their status.",
  "underpowered_mode": "Five rounds put only 3 behind the modal turn count and 1 behind each alternative. The calculator does NOT use this file's constant for that reason; the ten-round 2.1.238 run supersedes it."
 },
 "runs": [
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 0,
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   "wall": 3.9,
   "context": 22787,
   "turns": 1,
   "cost": 0.067785,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 0,
   "files_created": 0,
   "wall": 6.9,
   "context": 61390,
   "turns": 1,
   "cost": 0.461838,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
   "n": 1,
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 1,
   "files_created": 1,
   "wall": 24.3,
   "context": 92919,
   "turns": 3,
   "cost": 0.14675665000000002,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
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   "files_created": 1,
   "wall": 20.4,
   "context": 281362,
   "turns": 3,
   "cost": 0.8807657499999999,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
   "n": 1,
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 1,
   "files_created": 1,
   "wall": 5.1,
   "context": 45021,
   "turns": 2,
   "cost": 0.08377,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
   "n": 1,
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 1,
   "files_created": 1,
   "wall": 10.6,
   "context": 123074,
   "turns": 2,
   "cost": 0.49747500000000006,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
   "n": 4,
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 21.3,
   "context": 149574,
   "turns": 6,
   "cost": 0.30488000000000004,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
   "n": 4,
   "isolated": false,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 31.4,
   "context": 694745,
   "turns": 11,
   "cost": 1.8087022500000003,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
   "n": 4,
   "isolated": true,
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 7.9,
   "context": 45585,
   "turns": 5,
   "cost": 0.09703499999999998,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 10.0,
   "context": 123621,
   "turns": 5,
   "cost": 0.51022,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 0,
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   "wall": 4.4,
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   "turns": 1,
   "cost": 0.06777499999999999,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 7.1,
   "context": 61390,
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   "cost": 0.461838,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 1,
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   "context": 87649,
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   "cost": 0.14431125,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 1,
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   "wall": 20.7,
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   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 5.7,
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   "turns": 2,
   "cost": 0.08377,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
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   "files_created": 1,
   "wall": 9.7,
   "context": 123689,
   "turns": 2,
   "cost": 0.50515,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "isolated": true,
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 21.7,
   "context": 173121,
   "turns": 7,
   "cost": 0.28265350000000006,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 22.4,
   "context": 566633,
   "turns": 6,
   "cost": 1.72932525,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 8.6,
   "context": 45574,
   "turns": 5,
   "cost": 0.09664999999999999,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 11.6,
   "context": 124175,
   "turns": 5,
   "cost": 0.51576,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "isolated": true,
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 0,
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   "wall": 4.7,
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   "turns": 1,
   "cost": 0.066838,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "files_created": 0,
   "wall": 7.4,
   "context": 61390,
   "turns": 1,
   "cost": 0.461838,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "cost": 0.84447625,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "cost": 0.08377,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 9.3,
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   "cost": 0.503015,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 19.5,
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   "cost": 0.2676865,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 29.6,
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   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 9.2,
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   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 4.0,
   "context": 22787,
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   "cost": 0.06777999999999999,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 6.2,
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   "cost": 0.461838,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
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   "cost": 0.13870150000000003,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
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   "cost": 0.87800575,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 1,
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   "wall": 5.3,
   "context": 45021,
   "turns": 2,
   "cost": 0.08377,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 1,
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   "wall": 7.9,
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   "cost": 0.503015,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
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   "wall": 24.5,
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   "turns": 10,
   "cost": 0.303433,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 39.9,
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   "cost": 1.85906425,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "isolated": true,
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
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   "wall": 8.6,
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   "cost": 0.09703999999999999,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
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   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
   "n": 0,
   "isolated": true,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
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   "turns": 1,
   "cost": 0.06777499999999999,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "kind": "trivial",
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 6.4,
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   "cost": 0.461838,
   "reply": "OK"
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  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 11.1,
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   "reply": "DONE"
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  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 19.5,
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   "cost": 0.8431495,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
   "n": 1,
   "isolated": true,
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 1,
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   "wall": 6.8,
   "context": 45021,
   "turns": 2,
   "cost": 0.08377,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
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   "wall": 7.3,
   "context": 123628,
   "turns": 2,
   "cost": 0.503015,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
   "n": 4,
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
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   "context": 160047,
   "turns": 6,
   "cost": 0.2810397499999999,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "fanout",
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
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   "wall": 33.6,
   "context": 695631,
   "turns": 11,
   "cost": 1.81649675,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 11.3,
   "context": 67841,
   "turns": 6,
   "cost": 0.112966,
   "reply": "DONE"
  },
  {
   "kind": "inline",
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   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "files_expected": 4,
   "files_created": 4,
   "wall": 10.8,
   "context": 124175,
   "turns": 5,
   "cost": 0.51576,
   "reply": "DONE"
  }
 ],
 "version_provenance": {
  "how_the_release_is_established": "From the Claude Code session transcripts, which stamp the release on EVERY message: ~/.claude/projects/<cwd-slug>/*.jsonl. Every one of this file's 50 runs resolves to 2.1.236, and the harness itself now records the release top-level and per run.",
  "a_withdrawn_argument": "An earlier version of this corpus dated its runs from a two-token shift in the embedded trivial-floor cell, 22,787 against 22,789, and called that a release marker. THAT WAS WRONG and is withdrawn. This clean 2.1.238 run reads 22,787 and 21,890, the same values the 2.1.236 run produced, so the floor does not move between those releases at all. The two-token difference tracked the working-directory string, which is in the system prompt and was one character longer in that run. A proxy was used where a direct record existed."
 }
}