{
 "measurement": "What a real 286-skill pack costs at startup, and whether this site's synthetic curve predicts it",
 "claude_code_version": "2.1.251 (Claude Code)",
 "subject": {
  "repo": "affaan-m/ECC",
  "commit": "005eff4",
  "stars_at_trial": 244921,
  "license": "MIT",
  "what_the_manifest_declares": "skills: ['./skills/'], described as 286 skills",
  "security_scan": "PASSED. The only pattern hits are DEFENSIVE: a security-audit tool's own list of risky patterns, a reviewer prompt describing code injection, and denylists containing id_rsa. Reading them was necessary; a grep count alone would have looked alarming."
 },
 "THE DISK COUNT OVER-COUNTS BY 3.1x": {
  "skill_md_files_on_disk": 898,
  "where_they_live": {
   "docs": 519,
   "skills": 286,
   ".kiro": 43,
   ".agents": 39,
   ".cursor": 11
  },
  "what_actually_installs": 286,
  "why_it_matters": "Counting SKILL.md files on disk gives 898 and would have made this the largest pack this site has measured. The manifest declares ./skills/ only, and 519 of the files are documentation copies. This site already publishes that limit as a_repo_is_not_always_what_the_plugin_ships; this is a concrete 3.1x instance of it."
 },
 "method": {
  "population": "the pack's skills installed into an otherwise empty project's .claude/skills/, priced against an empty floor measured in the SAME round",
  "estimator": "guarded mode over 12 pooled rounds (shared estimator.py)",
  "rounds": 12,
  "prompt": "Reply with only: OK",
  "controls": [
   "paired floor per round",
   "arrival control: reply exactly OK, published per run",
   "--setting-sources project asserted onto the command line",
   "skills counted back off disk per run and asserted at 286",
   "no skill body is ever invoked; only the listing is priced",
   "result_guard refuses an unusable result rather than recording a zero"
  ]
 },
 "results": {
  "headline": {
   "skills": 286,
   "tokens": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "rounds": 12,
   "mode_seen_in_rounds": 12,
   "spread": 0,
   "histogram": {
    "9210": 12
   },
   "plain_statement": "A real 286-skill pack costs 9,210 tokens at startup, 32.2 per skill, single-valued in 12 of 12 rounds."
  },
  "against_this_sites_synthetic_curve": {
   "curve_points_used": [
    [
     200,
     7810
    ],
    [
     300,
     8769
    ]
   ],
   "linear_interpolation_at_286": 8635,
   "measured": 9210,
   "ratio_measured_over_predicted": 1.067,
   "verdict": "the curve is 6.7% out at this pack"
  },
  "the_contrast_that_makes_this_worth_publishing": {
   "this_pack": {
    "skills": 286,
    "tokens": 9210,
    "per_skill": 32.2,
    "description_chars": {
     "min": 110,
     "median": 258,
     "mean": 281,
     "max": 977,
     "total": 80553
    },
    "curve_ratio": 1.07
   },
   "cybersec_817_pack_measured_on_2_1_236": {
    "skills": 817,
    "tokens": 56622,
    "per_skill": 69.3,
    "description_chars": {
     "min": 97,
     "median": 396,
     "mean": 383,
     "max": 1016,
     "total": 312905
    },
    "curve_ratio": 5.15
   },
   "statement": "The same synthetic curve that lands within 7% on this pack was 5.15x LOW on a real 817-skill pack. NO CAUSE IS ASSERTED HERE. What is observable: the two packs differ in description length (median 258 against 396) and the 817 corpus's own ablation showed that 817 skills with IDENTICAL 396-character descriptions cost 9,952 while real unique ones cost 56,622, so uniqueness of description content matters there. Whether that explains the gap at 286 is NOT measured by this corpus."
  }
 },
 "known_limits": {
  "NO CAUSE IS ASSERTED FOR THE CONTRAST": "This corpus establishes that the curve fits one real pack and badly misses another. It does not establish why, and no ablation was run here. The difference in description length and the 817 corpus's uniqueness ablation are recorded as observations, not as an explanation.",
  "CARRY FORWARD listing_cost_only": "This prices HAVING the pack installed. It does not price using it: a body is charged when a skill is invoked and nothing here invokes one.",
  "CARRY FORWARD a_pack_is_a_moving_target": "Measured at commit 005eff4, pushed the day of the trial. The repository is changing fast and the commit is recorded so it can be reproduced.",
  "CARRY FORWARD the_injection_control_detects_only_loud_payloads": "Every reply was exactly OK. That shows no description changed the literal output; it does NOT show none influenced the model, and these are 286 third-party descriptions.",
  "CARRY FORWARD one_machine_one_model": "Opus on Claude Code 2.1.251, project scope, one machine.",
  "the_curve_is_interpolated_not_measured_at_286": "The comparison uses a linear interpolation between the measured 200 and 300 cells. The curve is in its collapsed regime there and is not necessarily linear between those points, so the 7% figure carries that assumption.",
  "one_pack_at_one_count": "One real pack at one size. Two real packs agreeing or disagreeing with a curve is not a curve of real packs."
 },
 "runs": [
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17173,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26383,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17173,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26383,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17173,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26383,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17173,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26383,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 0,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 1,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 2,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 3,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 4,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 5,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 5,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 6,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 6,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  },
  {
   "pack": "floor",
   "round": 7,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 0,
   "context": 17175,
   "delta": 0,
   "reply_exact_ok": true
  },
  {
   "pack": "ecc",
   "round": 7,
   "status": "ok",
   "skills_on_disk": 286,
   "description_stats": {
    "n": 286,
    "median": 258,
    "mean": 282,
    "max": 977,
    "total_chars": 80553
   },
   "context": 26385,
   "delta": 9210,
   "per_skill": 32.2,
   "reply_exact_ok": true,
   "reply": "OK"
  }
 ]
}